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Will Texas Latinos Decide Clinton's Fate?
Compiled by the DiversityInc staff
March 03, 2008
On the eve of the latest round of critical primaries, dubbed "Mini-Super Tuesday" by some news outlets, all eyes have turned toward Texas and Ohio in what's been described as make-or-break contests for the campaign of Sen. Hillary Clinton. And the deciding factor in tomorrow's contests could well be Black and Latino voters.
Why are they so important? In Texas alone, Black and Latino voters make up roughly half of the state's electorate, according to TIME.
Most polls show Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama going into Tuesday's Texas primary, while others show him gaining ground in Ohio. According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Clinton leads Obama 63 percent to 30 percent in a Belo Texas Tracking Poll. Another poll by Public Policy Polling gives Clinton an advantage of 68 percent to 27 percent among the state's Latinos.
But how solid is that support? A SurveyUSA Poll indicates Clinton's support among Texas Latinos has plummeted from 33 points to 13 points in the space of a week. Pollsters also warn against putting too much thought into the results because, according to the WSJ, Latinos in the state are spread geographically, so weighting the results is difficult.
The impact that Latinos across the country will have in this year's political contest has been well documented by political pundits and Latino-advocacy organizations. A recent Pew Hispanic Center study indicates that the reshuffling of many primary dates where Latinos have a large presence has added significantly to the impact of their vote. Read why some pundits are saying Puerto Rico could have the final say in Clinton versus Obama.
"Hispanics loom as a potential swing vote in the presidential race because they are strategically located on the 2008 Electoral College map. Hispanics constitute a sizable share of the electorate in four of the six states that President Bush carried by margins of five percentage points or fewer," states the Pew study. "Those states, New Mexico (where Latinos comprise 37 percent of the electorate, Florida (14 percent) Nevada (12 percent are expected to be closely contested once again in the 2008 general election."
The latest Reuters/C-Span/Houston Chronicle two-day tracking poll indicates Clinton is solidifying her base in Texas while Obama is making gains in Ohio.
"Hillary Clinton may be making a connection with Democratic voters in Texas, especially among those in key demographic groups that have supported her all year," says pollster John Zogby. "Among those ages 65 and older, she has made strong gains in the last 24 hours of polling. She also retains a big lead among Hispanic voters in Texas and has made small gains among white voters. However, it's important to note that Barack Obama continues to hold big leads among voters in Dallas and in Houston."
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