In 2050, Half of U.S. Will Be People of Color

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Population of the United States 2000

Population of the United States 2050

Projected Population Change in the United States From 2000 - 2050

In the next 50 years, the number of Latinos and Asian Americans in the United States will triple, while the white non-Latino population will increase a mere 7 percent, according to U.S. Census Bureau population projections released today.

Based on the 2000 Census data, white non-Latinos accounted for 69 percent of the population that year, while Latinos (who can be of any race) made up 13 percent, African Americans 13 percent, and Asian Americans 4 percent. In 2050, white non-Latinos will make up just 50 percent of the population, with Latinos accounting for 24 percent, African Americans 15 percent and Asian Americans 8 percent.

While these numbers prove how rapidly U.S. demographics are changing, they also foreshadow the direction in which marketers will need to target their efforts. The mainstream consumer market no longer will be dominated by white non-Latinos. The ineffectiveness of a "one-size-fits-all" marketing program will be even more apparent.

Companies hoping to grab the greatest share of the consumer market must be prepared to address the consumer nuances of the growing population of color, including the language issues associated with the increasing immigrant population.

Overall, the U.S. population is expected to increase 49 percent between 2000 and 2050, from 282.1 million to 419.9 million. The Census Bureau said this growth is in sharp contrast to most European countries, where populations are expected to decline by mid-century.

The Asian-American population will experience the biggest increase in the United States, expanding from 10.7 million in 2000 to 33.4 million in 2050, an increase of 213 percent. During the same time period, the Latino population will swell to 102.6 million in 2050 from 35.6 million in 2000, a 188 percent increase. The African-American population will experience more modest growth of 71 percent, rising from 35.8 million to 61.4 million, while white non-Latinos will exhibit the most minimal increase, growing from 195.7 million to 210.3 percent.

Population projections are based on Census 2000 data and assumptions about future childbearing, mortality and international migration. Gregory Spencer, chief of the population projections branch of the U.S. Census Bureau, said international migration, or immigration, will play a much larger role in the surge in the Asian-American and Latino populations. However, Spencer noted, "The Asian population is much more driven by migration than the Hispanic population."

In projections for 2005, international migration is expected to account for 60 percent of the increase in the Asian-American population and 35 percent in the Latino population. For the African-American population, this factor accounts for about a quarter of the population growth. This is a trend the Census Bureau expects to continue for the next half century.

It is anticipated that a greater percentage of the U.S. population will be older, with one in five people 65 years or older by 2030. While the ratio is the same for white non-Latinos, the proportions are much lower for people of color. Approximately one in seven African Americans, one in six Asian Americans and one in 10 Latinos will be 65 years old or older by 2030.

Regardless of the growth rate of the country's various racial and ethnic groups, the Census Bureau predicts that women will continue to outnumber men during the first half of the century, going from a numerical difference of 5.3 million in 2000 to 6.9 million in 2050.

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