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Is Mexican Immigration to the U.S. Slowing?
By C. Craig Jackson - Oct 1, 2009
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Also read: Hispanic Heritage Month, recruitment, Latina, immigration, Latino market

Consider these statistics:

  • 1 in 10 people born in Mexico currently live in the United States
  • Nearly all people who leave Mexico immigrate to the United States
  • One-third of all foreign-born and two-thirds of all Latino immigrants in the United States come from Mexico

While Mexico is easily the leading country of origin for U.S. immigrants, new trends show a significant decline in the number of entrants. Interestingly, the number of Mexicans returning to their country of origin has remained consistent at between 400,000 and 500,000 in the last half-decade.

The Pew Hispanic Center's report "Mexican Immigrants: How Many Come? How Many Leave?" charts the rapid decline in the number of migrants from Mexico over the last three years. The February-to-February total for 2006--2007 shows 1,026,000 Mexicans entering the United States; 2007--2008 shows 814,000, and the 2008--2009 shows 636,000 Mexican migrants. That is a 38 percent decrease.

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The likely reason this report was commissioned is explained by the authors, Jeffrey Passel, senior demographer, and D'Vera Cohn, senior writer. "The current recession has had a harsh impact on employment of Latino immigrants, raising the question of whether an increased number of Mexican-born residents are choosing to return home. This new Hispanic Center analysis finds no support for that hypothesis in government data from the United States or Mexico."

The consistency in the number of Mexican immigrants returning to their country of origin, Pew notes, debunks the theory that Mexican-born residents are choosing to return home because of the current economic climate. However, as noted in the report, the recent reductions in the number of entrants can be attributed to a number of factors, including increased border enforcement, the faltering U.S. economy and a fundamental change in U.S.-Mexico immigration patterns. A theory has yet to be proven.

The full report provides quarterly inflow and outflow numbers from Mexico to the United States as well as totals for the entire arrival-class of immigrants from 2001 to present (which shows no significant decline). For those interested in U.S. Border Patrol Apprehensions by Nationality, those numbers are provided for the years 1992--2008 and show a steady decline over the last five years for the number of apprehensions of Mexicans despite increased enforcement.

To view the full report, click here.

For a summary of what is available from the Pew Research Center, click here.

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